Visionary forecasting can be a valuable tool, especially when combined with more quantitative methods.
Visionary forecasting is based primarily on personal opinions, judgments, and insights of experienced individuals. Other methods like quantitative forecasting rely more on historical data and statistical analysis. Here are the key points about visionary forecasting:
Key characteristics of visionary forecasting: It is based on intuitive judgment and opinion, and it relies heavily on the vision and experience of experts; it can be backed up by data and historical analogies, but sometimes it relies on guesswork and imagination.
Process of forecasting: The "visionary" examines past events and developments. It uses this information to hypothesize potential future scenarios, but it may incorporate subjective probability estimations.
Applications of visionary forecasting: It studies market environments; estimates sales of new products; anticipates and tracks the progress of new products; and predicts trends in new market conditions. It is useful when historical data is limited or unavailable.
Advantages of visionary forecasting: It can provide insights in situations lacking historical data, and incorporate expert knowledge and intuition. It is useful for long-term or strategic forecasting
-Potential for confirmation bias (only look for evidence supporting their beliefs)
-Subjective nature can lead to inaccuracies
-Relying heavily on the expertise and judgment of individuals
In rapidly changing or emerging markets where historical data may not be relevant, visionary forecasting can be a valuable tool, especially when combined with more quantitative methods, but its subjective nature means it should be used in appropriate contexts.
0 comments:
Post a Comment