Tuesday, March 8, 2022

Unpredictability

Forward-thinking organizations cannot think in terms of alone nor can they give undue priority to areas that are covered by the tactical implementation of the strategy only.

Due to the “VUCA” (Velocity, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) characteristics of the digital new normal, organizations have to leverage refined information to improve its responsiveness in adaptation to changes. 

It is no surprise that there is a tension between “old and new,” from the business model, mindset, process or practice perspectives. To survive the “VUCA” digital new normal and thrive with the long-term business advantage involve more planning, adjustment, and speed.


The uncertainties give rise to the questions/problems, the certainties give rise to the contextualization of the problem: The pace of change is accelerated both in businesses and society, uncertainty of outcomes or occurrences is inherent in almost every business endeavor. More specifically, uncertainty is a state of having limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe the existing circumstance. The way to effectively deal with uncertainty is to reduce it by getting information. To manage unprecedented uncertainty, it’s important to bring a group of people together with cognitive differences, different backgrounds, capabilities, or strengths etc, lay the foundational knowledge to solve the problem or make sense out of uncertainties.

If you don’t have a sound solution to each newly created problem, you’ll have very little chance to implement business planning successfully. Large, complex problems are complex and multifaceted, it’s critical to collect sufficient information, identify relevant set of issues, as well as interconnectivity between parts and the whole; as certainties give rise to the contextualization of the problems. Once quality information is collected and refined; once all the groundwork is done, it is up to the certainties/uncertainties to make all the necessary connections in order to solve the problem effectively. In the past, many business leaders believed their organizations’ long-term goals could wait until they had dealt with the current crisis. In the current business environment, this is no longer the case, uncertainty and complexity are the new normal. The approach to deal with uncertainty and unpredictability includes planning in a short time and taking incremental effort, allowing the acquisition of new information along the way.

Good assumptions should be thought of as qualified knowledge-based projections; incorrect assumption is perhaps based on unconscious bias, disqualified information: As the assumptions are wrong; the conclusions also go wrong. Organizations across industries are facing frequent disruptions and fierce competitions. To deal with complexity, challenge automatic assumptions that something needs to be fixed. To just go ahead and fix it carries assumptions, particularly assumptions about something wrong, limiting, or not working in some way that requires 'fixing.' Good assumptions based on objective perception to forecast. In order to make better assumptions, look at the issues you need to handle from an integral perspective rather than attempting to understand it from a sum of the parts, understand how the part influences the whole as well as how they fit as a subsystem; how to fix root causes rather than symptoms; to avoid generating more problems.

In order to eliminate presumption or unconscious bias, it’s important to gain a contextual understanding of things or issues, allowing the acquisition of new information along the way. Organizations can harness the power of data to provide the business with a more fact-based vision of where to aim and how to get there. Make planning in a short time and take incremental effort, a system to mitigate risks brought by assumptions; applying data-driven judgment skills, incorporates the multi-faceted aspects of the knowledge in strategic planning.

Single-thread serial actions based on linear logic enlarges gaps; multi-thread management disciplines based on nonlinear logic ensure business holism:
Traditional management is inside out with linear processes to drive efficiency; single threaded actions to implement strategy. The consequence of all of this is that the “classic” management doesn’t take a systemic approach to management. That causes silo or incoherence, decelerating business speed. The multi-threaded management discipline involves aligning business initiatives, talent, resources, and performance with the goals and objectives of seamless strategy management, developing a healthy cycle of business portfolio.

People-centricity is the desired business goal. Forethoughtful companies leverage data-based analytics to do the planning; examine sensitivity analysis results to understand customers’ need, collect invaluable feedback and make timely adjustments for enhancing a dynamic planning-implementation; learning-acting-relearning continuum. High-effective business management intends to not only take care of isolated issues, but solve chains of problems by taking multi-thread management disciplines. It’s more critical to embed predictive actions into repeatable business processes to improve business management agility and speed.

Forward-thinking organizations cannot think in terms of alone nor can they give undue priority to areas that are covered by the tactical implementation of the strategy only. A well-selected set of metrics helps to clarify critical issues such as the revenue generated by business initiatives, calculate the tangible value created from the multi-threading management, and keep track of business performance at both individual and team level, etc. It’s about defining abstract components and hence establishing the way to strategy management, discovering patterns, abstracting concerns, understanding universal principles, developing the best and next practices to scale, and executing capability-based strategy smoothly.

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