Saturday, September 25, 2021


The prediction of the future is based on the analysis of the past and insight of today.

The speed of change is increasing, uncertainties and complexity are a common occurrence in any walk of our progress. The goal of business forecasting is about predicting what will happen and how to act on it by making effective decisions and solving complex problems. 

Either orienting change, navigating through strategy management, or developing competitive workforce, you may not be able to foresee specific instances of futures, but you can imagine general classes and positions to take advantage of shaping or mitigating what is then occurring, as well as how to influence and prepare for overcoming the learning curves and moving things forward promptly.

Forecast change impact: Running business today is a dynamic change continuum. Change can be classified into long term transformation, mid-term change capacity building or short-term sprint to reach certain performance goals. Foresight is critical to navigating the organization into the uncharted water or blurred digital territories. Forethoughtful business leaders envision the trends of their vertical industry and forecast the upcoming change with a certain degree of precision even though nowadays the business conditions and ecosystems are full of uncertainty and ambiguity, develop a vision of what it could be, mobilize the organization to accept and work toward achieving the long-term business vision and institutionalize the changes that must last over time.

Forward-thinking companies leverage information-based analytics to provide business foresight and customer insight about upcoming opportunities or risks, see changes coming and with pre-planning to overcome the resistance before it even manifests. The optimal prediction system should have the best results in different areas according to the specific or customized quality criteria. You have to be honest about what’s going on, and should have the measures laid out beforehand to clearly indicate the extent to which the change needed is achievable. Some changes could be business critical, so without a measure the effort cannot be justified.

Forecast the management efforts to realize the strategy: We live in an era full of uncertainty, velocity, complexity, and ambiguity, strategy is no longer a set of docs sitting on the executives’ shelf, but a dynamic book that has to keep updated for adapting to the “VUCA” new normal. To manage resources and make investments in strategy management effectively, business management needs to forecast the efforts to realize the strategy; they might also need to predict and deal with threats or disruptions that the organization faces, sometimes you need to be able to look for something “hidden,” which is not always so obvious, keep evaluating how costly it would be when the necessary adjustment is needed to adapt to the emerging changes.It is the step-wise scenario of information –insight/foresight – decision making for taking tangible efforts to realize a good enough strategy.

The business context reflects both complexity and chaos, each of these contexts requires in-depth collective insight and foresight into effective decision-making. Prediction can be an outcome of the controllable relationships within the business and skillfully apply risk-based thinking to almost every discipline of management. In order to make better assumptions or improve forecast precision, have a very good grasp of the overall business, its strategy, the marketplace, business model, and competitive distinctiveness. Besides information precision, the highest level of future sensitivity comes from appreciation of the whole business conditions and situations which rely heavily on leaders’ ingenuity and intuition, knowledge, and experience. Their deep “common sense” leads toward ”effective judgment," and drives the organization forward-what should you do upon it. It’s the transition from vision to a smooth strategy management orientation.

Forecast talent/skill/competency demand: People are always the most invaluable asset and human capitals that organizations need to invest. Digital workplace is highly professional, competitive, and informative. Thus, forecasting the roles & positions you need to navigate the changes driven by digital trends as well as knowledge, skills, and differentiated capabilities are required in building the “future state” of the business to ensure you have the right people in the right place, at the right time, and for the right cost to accelerate organizational learning and performance. Employees need to continue growing, taking more responsibility for determining the parameters of the working relationship, to improve their professional competency.

Forward thinking companies forecast needed skills and roles, address their common and unique competency requirements and map that out through some skills/competency matrix within their organization. More specifically, they define and forecast the professional cognitive/attitudinal /behavioral competencies required to achieve their organizational strategic goals at a technical/functional/ company/industry level and ensure calculated business results being achieved seamlessly. Talent managers start using quality information not only to monitor employees’ behavior, but also to ask and answer some hard questions that are at the heart of how employees contribute to business performance, predict employee preferences and behaviors and tailor next practices to attract and retain talent.

The prediction of the future is based on the analysis of the past and insight of today. The best prediction is optimal. The accuracy of the prediction will depend on the completeness of the input information and talent of analysts. Foresight is also an ongoing conversation, business leaders have to keep evolving and gaining new and broader views, discovering unexpected connections between the business and its rich environment, and shape the future together collaboratively.


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