Unfoldfutureviaforecastlogic

Foresight is an ongoing conversation, the highest level of future sensitivity comes from appreciation of the whole situation which relies heavily on leaders’ ingenuity, intelligence and intuition.

Rapid change and frequent disruptions are the new normal; uncertainties are a common occurrence in any walk of our progress, be it social, professional, or personal life. We cannot predict anything beforehand but can imagine with many experiences involved in the present or in the past. Forethoughtful business leaders and professionals develop and demonstrate strong forecast logic via information based insight and interdisciplinary knowledge, envision the trends and forecast the upcoming change with a certain degree of precision.

 

Forecast is based on informative logic-the analysis of the past and insight of today: We live in an era full of uncertainty, velocity, complexity, and ambiguity. It is true that information grows exponentially even in the case of the digital paradigm shift. Computers spit out some numbers. The accuracy of the prediction will depend on the completeness of the input information. Information based analytics in itself adds no value; it’s the decisions that analytics helps to drive the actual business value. You develop a predicting model based on the information you have from the past and you capture business insight via quality information on hand. First data, then metrics, which are simply data combined to something meaningful, then models - which predict, then decisions - which act.

To predict and respond to the emergent business properties, it’s important to make data more “visible” for shareholders to make effective decisions, drive innovations, and create richer business value returns. It’s important to link information management to multiple business domains within the enterprise and their business partners, identify the right information, validate it and communicate it to the right people at the right time to grasp opportunities or manage risks systematically.

Forecast is based on systematic logic -to predict consequences via in-depth understanding of organizational context and systematic view of business complexity: Contemporary organizations are organic systems that keep evolving. Prediction can be an outcome of the controllable relationships within a system to make progressive changes. Some trends are more significant than others in their impact on business growth. Sometimes you need to be able to look for something “hidden,” which is not always so obvious, in order to make better assumptions or improve forecast precision. Other times, you need to broaden the perspectives, leverage systematic logic to understand the hyperconnectivity and interdependencies between different components.

Systematic forecast pulls the strategy out of the darkness. Systems perspective can broaden the vision and look into an unknown future, understanding how relationships, ecosystems, market dynamics, and the connections between business units are related. To manage resources and make investments in strategy management effectively, business management needs to forecast the efforts to realize the strategy; they might also need to predict and deal with threats or disruptions that the organization faces. Have a very good grasp of the overall business, its strategy, the marketplace, business model, and competitive distinctiveness to ensure that the business solutions supplied to the enterprise deliver maximum value at an acceptable cost. Some corrections require more drastic paradigm shifts with corresponding economic impacts or predictable political challenges.

Philosophical forecast based on logic, metaphysics, ontology, and epistemology - to predict the trends, prevent risks, and prepare for the future smoothly: Science always needs philosophy that helps to abstract fact and unify the understanding. All philosophy is analytical, that philosophy must be classified with mathematics and logic. It takes true forecast logic with the right mix of science and philosophy, learns from its historical roots (past), keeps the light on (today) and makes a long term plan for the future. In practice of predictive analysis though, you see a conjunction of cognitive and philosophical thinking with a decidedly short-term model where the present extends to an annual forecast and the future is no more than a year or two.

The convergence of statistics & decision science, and philosophical logic will make a direct impact on running an intelligent business by contemplating: Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge? Where is the knowledge we have lost in information? Where is the information we have lost in data? How do the philosophical and technical aspects of a workplace fit together directly impact the effectiveness and maturity of the company? Philosophically, there isn't always a right or wrong choice in any situation and there are a lot of grays. A problem for one, is an opportunity for the other; knowledge for one, information for the other, belief for one, disbelief for another, etc. Philosophical forecast improves management agility and flexibility.

Foresight is an ongoing conversation, the highest level of future sensitivity comes from appreciation of the whole situation which relies heavily on leaders’ ingenuity, intelligence and intuition. We live in an information technology world and every day more and more technology affects the way we live, love, and think, information keeps us aware of what's happening in the surroundings. Forecast logic is both scientific and philosophical, helping us understand the business, information, and process landscape to consolidate data and generate insight across the enterprise to unlock business performance and improve the overall organizational maturity.

Posted in: All about Future,Big Data,Business Intelligence,Systems Wisdom,Vision